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Overcoming Selection Bias in Statistical Studies With Amortized Bayesian Inference

Arruda, Jonas, Chervet, Sophie, Staudt, Paula, Wieser, Andreas, Hoelscher, Michael, Sermet-Gaudelus, Isabelle, Binder, Nadine, Opatowski, Lulla, Hasenauer, Jan

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in epidemiological or survey settings, individuals with certain outcomes may be more likely to be included, resulting in biased prevalence estimates with potentially substantial downstream impact. Classical corrections, such as inverse-probability weighting or explicit likelihood-based models of the selection process, rely on tractable likelihoods, which limits their applicability in complex stochastic models with latent dynamics or high-dimensional structure. Simulation-based inference enables Bayesian analysis without tractable likelihoods but typically assumes missingness at random and thus fails when selection depends on unobserved outcomes or covariates. Here, we develop a bias-aware simulation-based inference framework that explicitly incorporates selection into neural posterior estimation. By embedding the selection mechanism directly into the generative simulator, the approach enables amortized Bayesian inference without requiring tractable likelihoods. This recasting of selection bias as part of the simulation process allows us to both obtain debiased estimates and explicitly test for the presence of bias. The framework integrates diagnostics to detect discrepancies between simulated and observed data and to assess posterior calibration. The method recovers well-calibrated posterior distributions across three statistical applications with diverse selection mechanisms, including settings in which likelihood-based approaches yield biased estimates. These results recast the correction of selection bias as a simulation problem and establish simulation-based inference as a practical and testable strategy for parameter estimation under selection bias.


Online learning with noisy side observations

Kocák, Tomáš, Neu, Gergely, Valko, Michal

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a new partial-observability model for online learning problems where the learner, besides its own loss, also observes some noisy feedback about the other actions, depending on the underlying structure of the problem. We represent this structure by a weighted directed graph, where the edge weights are related to the quality of the feedback shared by the connected nodes. Our main contribution is an efficient algorithm that guarantees a regret of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{α^* T})$ after $T$ rounds, where $α^*$ is a novel graph property that we call the effective independence number. Our algorithm is completely parameter-free and does not require knowledge (or even estimation) of $α^*$. For the special case of binary edge weights, our setting reduces to the partial-observability models of Mannor and Shamir (2011) and Alon et al. (2013) and our algorithm recovers the near-optimal regret bounds.


Gradient-Variation Regret Bounds for Unconstrained Online Learning

Zhao, Yuheng, Jacobsen, Andrew, Cesa-Bianchi, Nicolò, Zhao, Peng

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop parameter-free algorithms for unconstrained online learning with regret guarantees that scale with the gradient variation $V_T(u) = \sum_{t=2}^T \|\nabla f_t(u)-\nabla f_{t-1}(u)\|^2$. For $L$-smooth convex loss, we provide fully-adaptive algorithms achieving regret of order $\widetilde{O}(\|u\|\sqrt{V_T(u)} + L\|u\|^2+G^4)$ without requiring prior knowledge of comparator norm $\|u\|$, Lipschitz constant $G$, or smoothness $L$. The update in each round can be computed efficiently via a closed-form expression. Our results extend to dynamic regret and find immediate implications to the stochastically-extended adversarial (SEA) model, which significantly improves upon the previous best-known result [Wang et al., 2025].


Online Learning with Transductive Regret

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study online learning with the general notion of transductive regret, that is regret with modification rules applying to expert sequences (as opposed to single experts) that are representable by weighted finite-state transducers. We show how transductive regret generalizes existing notions of regret, including: (1) external regret; (2) internal regret; (3) swap regret; and (4) conditional swap regret. We present a general and efficient online learning algorithm for minimizing transductive regret. We further extend that to design efficient algorithms for the time-selection and sleeping expert settings. A by-product of our study is an algorithm for swap regret, which, under mild assumptions, is more efficient than existing ones, and a substantially more efficient algorithm for time selection swap regret.



The Gain of Ordering in Online Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

V ov95, CBL06] and online convex optimization [Haz16, Ora19] have been developed. Until the labels of all examples of X have been predicted: The learning algorithm picks a point x X and makes a prediction z R about its label.


Universal Rates for Active Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this work we study the problem of actively learning binary classifiers from a given concept class, i.e., learning by utilizing unlabeled data and submitting targeted queries about their labels to a domain expert. We evaluate the quality of our solutions by considering the learning curves they induce, i.e., the rate of



Riemannian Projection-free Online Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

In Euclidean space, OCO boasts a robust theoretical foundation and numerous real-world applications, such as online load balancing (Molinaro, 2017), optimal control (Li et al., 2019), revenue maximization (Lin et al., 2019), and portfolio management (Jézéquel et al., 2022).